Putin: Russia’s strategic deterrent force has shifted to a state of special combat readiness The United States and the European Union have agreed to prohibit major Russian banks from using the SWIFT system for global capital transactions and international trade will be affected by the sharp depreciation of the Russian ruble About 15% of seafarers may face a more serious labor shortage. US Trade Representative: The trade relationship between the United States and China is “extremely difficult and increasingly difficult”. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine may push up the price of fertilizers. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine may cause the price of potash fertilizer to rise The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has pushed up the cost of automobiles, and some Volkswagen factories have stopped production due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
01 Putin: Russia’s strategic deterrent force has entered a state of special combat readiness
When Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Russian Defense Minister Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Gerasimov on the 27th local time, he said that the West is not only containing Russia economically, but also that the speech of some leaders is becoming more and more aggressive, so the order Russia’s strategic deterrent force has entered a state of special combat readiness.
On the 27th local time, European Commission President von der Leyen said in Brussels that the EU will for the first time provide funding to countries under attack for the procurement and delivery of weapons and related equipment.
02 US, EU agree to ban major Russian banks from using SWIFT system
On February 26, local time, the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom and Canada issued a joint statement announcing that several major Russian banks were prohibited from using the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) international settlement system as the latest sanctions against Russia. Russia’s central bank imposed “restrictive measures” to prevent it from deploying its international reserves in a way that could undermine sanctions.
03 Global capital flows and international trade will be affected
Industry insiders pointed out that cutting off the connection between financial institutions and the SWIFT system actually cuts off the connection between financial institutions and the global banking system. The inability of Russian financial institutions to use the swift payment system means that they are basically unable to carry out cross-border receipts and payments, which in turn affects global capital flows and international trade, said Dong Ximiao, a researcher at Fudan University’s Institute of Finance. It is worth noting that the sanctions announced by the United States and Europe this time. Just kicking a few, but not all, Russian financial institutions out of the SWIFT system could mean that the EU still maintains a payment channel for gas purchases from Russia. As we all know, most countries in the EU are highly dependent on Russian natural gas for energy, so this time, all Russian banks have not been kicked out of the SWIFT system. There may be considerations in this regard.
04 The Russian ruble depreciated sharply, and the devaluation of the ruble caused damage to Chinese enterprises in Russia
Since the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the international financial situation has also undergone tremendous changes. The exchange rate of the ruble depreciated rapidly, with a depreciation rate of more than 20% in half a month. Due to the sanctions imposed on Russia by many European and American countries, the amount that Russian financial institutions can exchange for dollars and euros is currently strictly limited. Many people in Russia were worried about the situation and went to the bank to withdraw a large amount of cash, and many banks also had clear restrictions on cash withdrawal. Many Chinese-funded enterprises in Russia revealed that some Russian banks have been unable to purchase foreign exchange normally, and even if Chinese-funded enterprises purchased foreign exchange, they could not remit it normally. Relevant enterprises and organizations in Russia have sought help from China’s Industrial and Commercial Bank of China in Moscow, hoping to repay domestic money in RMB.
05 Russian and Ukrainian seafarers account for about 15% of global seafarers, and shipping may face a more serious labor shortage
According to a statement issued by the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS), 10.5% of the world’s 1.89 million seafarers are Russians and 4% are Ukrainians. Ukraine has entered a state of war, and Ukrainian male citizens between the ages of 18 and 60 will be banned from leaving Ukraine. ICS said supply chains could be disrupted as 90% of global trade travels by ship. Without action to increase the number of seafarers, there will be shortages of merchant marine crews, increasing risks to global supply chains. The Suez Canal Authority of Egypt said on February 28 that from March 1, it will charge up to 10% of canal tolls for heavy-duty and ballast vessels.
06 US Trade Representative Dai Qi said on Friday that trade relations between the United States and China are “extremely difficult and increasingly difficult.”
07 The conflict between Russia and Ukraine may push up the price of fertilizers The conflict between Russia and Ukraine may cause the price of potash fertilizer to remain high
Russia is the world’s largest fertilizer exporter, with potash accounting for about 20% of the world’s supply. Some experts said that due to the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the price of potash fertilizer may fluctuate. It is understood that the export volume of Russia and Belarus accounts for about 40% of the total global potash fertilizer export volume. China, Brazil and India are the main demanders. In 2022, the contract price of potash fertilizer in China and India will be locked at US$590/ton, a year-on-year increase of US$343/ton, a new high in 10 years. Industry insiders believe that due to overlapping supply times in China and India, coupled with strong demand for potash fertilizers in Brazil, prices may remain high in the future. In addition, the transportation of potash fertilizer is generally dominated by sea, and the uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine may increase the cost of sea transportation.
08 The Russian-Ukrainian conflict pushes up the cost of cars, and some Volkswagen plants stop production due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict
Under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the impact on the global related industrial chain has begun to gradually appear. Two Volkswagen plants in Germany were halted for several days due to delays in parts being produced in Ukraine. Russia is an important source of the metal “palladium”, which is an important raw material for chip manufacturing. Russia is also an investment destination for many car manufacturers. German Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and other car companies have invested and set up factories in Russia. About 4,000 Volkswagen employees work at its plant in Kaluga, southwest of Moscow; BMW recently extended its expiring partnership with the Russian automaker until 2028, and the Kaliningrad plant will be expanded at a cost of 350 million euros. This round of sanctions is bound to have a major impact on the layout of traditional car companies in Russia. Some analysts pointed out that according to the severity and duration of the conflict in Ukraine, the already tight industrial chain and prices of global auto supply will face greater pressure.
The content is compiled and released by Dazhou Foreign Trade Information Comprehensive CCTV Finance, Xinhua News Agency, Financial Associated Press, and Reuters
Post time: Mar-01-2022